SOME NOTES FROM A RECENT CONFERENCE IN THE SL VALLEY:
These are notes that my friend ____ took from the meeting Sat with a seismologist expert. The Brethren are expecting a 7.2 which will leave at least 260,000 homeless with no running water or electricity.
Wasatch Earthquake Zone...I learned in the earthquake class on Saturday that the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch fault is overdue to release and that this overdueness flows a bit up into the neighboring segment to the north as well. Should one segment go off they expect around a 7 earthquake in magnitude, but if others are triggered together it would likely be a 7.2 or higher. Regardless, the neighboring segments would be likely to be triggered in following weeks...years.
The mountains to the East are not moving (part of the Craton?) but the valleys and mountains to the West are moving towards the ocean along a shelf at a rate of 1-3 mm per year. Most of the mountain ranges to the West in Nevada are also faults and are also moving that direction as they tie into the same shelf deep under the earth. This movement is not much unless you figure out that it has been a thousand plus years since that energy has been released which means that deep under the earth, the earth has been sliding Westward now perhaps a total of 7+ feet since the last release. It is friction keeping that from moving but someday there will be that "last straw" or millimeter which is going to release that energy probably all at once and at lightning (literally) speed. Then you get the energy waves moving outward from the epicenter to compensate for that movement.
The epicenter is expected to be around 10 miles West from the Wasatch range so pretty much deep down in the center of the valley where other faults tie in and are located (West Valley, Kaysville, Granger, Magna).
Because a great deal of the valley is in the liquefaction zone the earth will move at different rates even under houses and buildings pushing parts up and down and water will shoot up out of the earth in places and it will literally be mud especially where the fountains happen.
Most homes, especially those built before 1980 were not built for earthquakes. Gravity is the force that keeps them on their foundations and the roofs on top of the walls and the walls standing straight... which let's just say is bad if the ground moves and shakes.
The earthquake expert talked at a school (where his grandson is now attending) that was built with old masonry construction and the PTA got involved and it was rebuilt a few years later (it took a year to rebuild.) To knock the school down the backhoe only had to slightly bump one wall and the rest of the school including the roof came down like dominoes. He would like to see more communities come together to demand safer schools.
Note: A year or two ago an apostle at a regional stake conference in the greater SL area told us to go home and dedicate our homes to God...and as we know we have been told to keep the Sabbath Day holy. President Nelson had important things to say to the brethren about what we must do to keep our families safe in the times to come in the last priesthood session of conference. That sounds like really good advice about now as for many of us it truly could take miracles...
His message is in the comments
What does he mean "The Bretheren" are expecting a 7.2?
ReplyDeleteNice catch.
DeleteIn my best "donkey" voice from Shrek ........
"Yeah, what da frizball do he mean the Brethern are expectin' a sebben point two? I gotz ta know what dat means! Talking sebben point two. Dat sound like sumpthin' I want no part of I tell ya that, mmm mmm no way, no thank you very much, no sirrrreee, that sounds scary Shrek!"
"Shut up Donkey!!!!!!!!!!"
Several years ago, FEMA had an earthquake analysis done for the Wasatch Fault. Another analysis/scenario was completed in June 2015. It seems like the earlier scenario was based on a 7.2 quake. The more recent scenario is based on a 7.0 quake.
ReplyDeletehttp://dem.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2015/03/RS1058_EERI_SLC_EQ_Scenario.pdf
From the executive summary:
"Loss estimates for the scenario earthquake indicate disastrous impact. The estimated short-term economic loss is over $33 billion. This includes (1) direct building-related capital losses (including structural, non-structural, content, and inventory) of $24.9 billion,
(2) income losses of $6.9 billion, and (3) lifeline-related losses of $1.4 billion. More than 84,000 households are expected to be displaced with nearly 53,000 individuals seeking shelters. Depending on the time of day, there will be an estimated 2,000 to 2,500 deaths, and the estimated number of people injured and needing hospital care ranges from 7,400 to 9,300. Essential lifelines such as water, electricity,
gas, and sewer will be disrupted for days to months, and in some locations in the Salt Lake Valley, perhaps longer. An example challenge will be the need to evaluate for safe occupancy more than 300,000 structures in 30 days, which will require about 2,400
building inspectors. Another challenge will be the removal of debris generated by the earthquake―requiring over 820,000 truckloads at 25 tons per truck."
From page 15,
"In the 30 days following a magnitude 7.0 earthquake, based on a reasonable aftershock model, we can expect up to three aftershocks greater than magnitude 6, 13 greater than magnitude 5, and 77 greater than magnitude 4."
Loss estimations on page 26 are interesting. Households without potable water after the earthquake are estimated to be at 483,600 and 444,600 will be without electricity. After 90 days, only 800 households will still be without electricity, BUT an estimated 332,800 will still be without potable water.
A recent earthquake probability analysis was put out earlier this year
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3019/fs20163019.pdf
"There is a 43 percent probability that the Wasatch Front region will experience at least one M6.75 or greater earthquake in the next 50 years."
"There is a 57 percent probability of one or more M6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years."
While I'm sure at least some of the Brethren have received revelation regarding the coming earthquakes, much of what gets presented is based on researched data, analysis, and prediction modeling.
For me, it's interesting reading. It gives credence to those who have had dreams and visions regarding earthquakes. And if the magnitudes increase into the high 8 and 9 ranges, devastation is what is left.
A 7-7.2 will be a warning. But many will see it as being the Big One and not believe other big--or even bigger--quakes are on the horizon. Reading the brief, under-stated descriptions of the destruction that happened in the Americas at the Savior's death will give you an idea of what is possible.
You sound like someone who lives in an earthquake prone area and keeps tabs on stats from every available source. Ex-military as well perhaps? Not someone who chimes in often unless you have information worthy of your time to share because you are very busy.
DeleteThanks for all the wonderful technical information and God bless you.
Crazy stuff! Now 6.8 off the coast of Californication, A near 8 in the Solomon Islands with a Tsunami warning, John Glenn the astronaut dies, and Mick Jagger welcomes his 8th child.
ReplyDeleteThe most astounding thing out of all of this? The Mick Jagger story.
What woman is willing to procreate with a guy with lips big enough to put a hickey on Ohio? "Oh yes! I want my child to look just like Mick Jagger". Has to be for the $$$ and gag me with a spoon.