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Experts Claim 10 to 45% Chance Massive Earthquake And Tsunami Will Devastate Pacific Northwest
The Intel Hub
By Alex Thomas
June 25th, 2011
Experts have placed the probability of a massive earthquake striking along the Cascadia fault at a 10 to 37% chance within the next 50 years.
Speaking at a Portland State University symposium on earthquakes, experts compared evidence from Japan as well as soil seabed samples to reach their conclusion.
“Within the next 50 years, they say, Washington and northern Oregon face a 10 to 15 percent probability of an offshore quake powerful enough to kill thousands and launch a tsunami that would level coastal cities,” reported The Oregonian.
This is startling considering the massive destruction caused by the powerful Japanese earthquake and subsequent tsunami that wrecked havoc throughout Japan and caused three full scale meltdowns at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.
“Off southern Oregon, the probability of an 8-or-higher magnitude earthquake is greater — 37 percent, according to Oregon State University’s Chris Goldfinger, one of the world’s top experts on subduction-zone quakes.”
Chris Goldfinger has been involved and lead similar studies in the past that have indicated essentially the same probability. In 2008 he lead a study that showed a 1 in 3 chance of a massive earthquake rocking Oregon in the next 50 years.tsunami map
“It could be tomorrow, it could be 50 years from now,” Goldfinger told NWCN.com in mid March.
In April 2011 The Daily Mail reported that their is actually a 45% probability of a so called ‘Megathrust’ in the Cascadia fault zone.
“Cascadia, which stretches from Vancouver island to northern California, has been dormant for over 300 years but scientists now believe there is a 45 per cent probability of an earthquake of an 8.0 magnitude or higher in the next 50 years. They add there is a 15 per cent chance of magnitude 9 or more.”
Interestingly enough, Goldfinger has also showed a correlation between the San Andreas Fault and the Cascadia Fault.
ScienceDaily, quoting research published by the Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, reported in 2008 that seismic activity on the southern Cascadia fault has possibily trigged earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault.
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Opinions differ in regards to how frequent the fault produces magnitude 8 or above earthquakes, with some believing that it likely happens every 250 years and others believing it is closer to every 500.
It has been about 300 years since the last magnitude 8 or above struck Oregon.
Unfortunately, most Oregon buildings are not prepared for a strong earthquake. According to official reports, upwards of 300,000 children attend Oregon schools that are vulnerable to collapse in the event of a large scale earthquake.
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For those that aren’t familiar with the Cascadia Subduction Zone here is some background research.
Oregon Coast’s Vulnerability
The northwestern coast of Oregon is susceptible to both local and far-field tsunamis. The Cascadia Subduction Zone, where the eastward moving Juan de Fuca plate meets the westward moving North American Plate, is just off the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States and Canada.
It is a 750-kilometer long fault zone. This area is very active tectonically, and therefore has the potential to produce large earthquakes and possibly, subsequent tsunamis. This subduction zone is thought to have last ruptured in 1700.
Additionally, far-field earthquakes throughout the Pacific are also capable of spawning tsunamis that could eventually reach the Oregon coast. Historical records show that since 1812, about 28 tsunamis with wave heights greater than one meter have reached the U.S. west coast. Source
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