Quarantine under threat of death WILL be required at some point. An RV parked near the edge of the property for people who wish to join your group would be desired. Paper plates and plastic cups for delivered water would be the expected food delivery method until people have passed the minimum time.
Here is a great article on the subject:
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The Ebola Virus:
Social Distancing & Survival
by
Kevin Reeve, LDS-AVOW Moderator
I first heard of the
Ebola Virus in Richard Preston's book titled, "The Hot Zone" in
1994. Back then, only by luck, a serious outbreak was avoided. What I
remember about the disease is horrifying: liquefying organs, bleeding from
the ears and eyes, black vomit and brain sludge. There is no cure, and the
mortality rate of those infected nears 90%.
Back in '94, as I learned about
this disease, I spoke to a viral epidemiologist friend. He said that what
made the disease less threatening is that it had been relatively easy to
contain in small remote villages because it kills its victims so quickly. But
he warned of a catastrophe of biblical dimensions if it ever took hold in a
densely populated area.
Today, the Ebola Virus is
breaking out. It is not being contained, and if it continues to spread as
today, it could create a pandemic.
On Saturday, a woman, 72,
arriving on a flight from Sierra Leone collapsed at the Gatwick airport,
north of London. According to witnesses, the victim was sweating, vomiting,
and died later that day in the hospital yet exhibited no symptoms on the
flight. An update given to the public indicated that tests came back negative
for Ebola. It's hard to think of another illness, with a sudden onset, which
kills so quickly, and whose symptoms eerily mimic those of Ebola. We can hope
that authorities are competent and truthful, but hope is not a strategy.
Dr.
Olive Johnson, working in Freeport, Sierra Leone, said:
"What shocking is how
healthy the patients look before they die and how quickly they decline. A
number of the Ebola patients I've seen look quite fit and healthy and can be
walking around until shortly before their deaths."
With an incubation period of
between 2-12 days, the problem of detection and protection becomes glaringly
obvious. While Ebola may not be considered an imminent threat to us in the
US, it's compelling enough to interest people in the critical topic of Social
Distancing, or as it more commonly known "quarantine." Social
Distancing is recommend in scenarios more common than Ebola, like flu
pandemics.
For this article, I will use
the example of Ebola to highlight components of Social Distancing.
The last great pandemic was the
Spanish Flu of 1918, which killed an estimated 50,000,000 people, worldwide,
with a kill rate of only 5%. Contrast that with Ebola, which
kills 60%-90% of those infected, according to the World Health Organization.
So far transmission is by direct and surface contact, however that may be in
question with reports of airborne transmission in 2012 Scientific Reports.
Social Distancing: the
only proven response
In the Spanish Flu outbreak in
1918, there was one country that was able to completely avoid having anyone
die from the disease. The island country of Samoa closed its harbors and
allowed no one, not one single person, to come ashore during the life of the
disease. Samoans, living in an equatorial climate replete with year-round food
sources, were fortunate to be able to provide for all of their own needs
during that time.
Japan had very few cases of the
flu using the same approach. They isolated the entire country. A practical
goal for an island.
I want to suggest that you consider
preparations to engage in local social isolation for a period of 90 days, the
approximate burnout time for a typical pandemic.
Here are some terms you should
become familiar with. If you understand what is happening, then dealing with
it is simpler.
Ebola, like the common flu, is
a virus. Viruses do not respond to antibiotics. It is possible to create
immunizations for viruses, but each immunization has to be specifically
developed for each virus. Currently, there is no immunization or treatment
for Ebola outside of comfort care for the victims.
Most bacterial infections do
respond to antibiotics and tend to be more easily controlled. Some bacteria,
like MSRA are not easily stopped by antibiotics and may also be pandemic
causers. A friend contracted MSRA from a daughter-in-law who had recently delivered
a baby in a hospital. They both were treated with oral and IV antibiotics for
18 months. Resources would be rapidly depleted if a large number of people
became infected.
Below are some Pandemic Terms
that may help in your understanding:
Exposure:
Contact with an infected party in such a way that transmission could have
occurred.
Virulence: the %
of those exposed who contact the disease.
Incubation: The
time after exposure until the infected party is detectibly infected.
Infection:
someone who has been exposed and has become infected with the disease.
Contagious: The
time after infection when the infected person becomes contagious
Symptomatic: The time at which symptoms
first appear.
One of the factors that
contribute to a pandemic occurs when a patient is infected and contagious,
but asymptomatic, greatly enhancing the opportunity for the virus to spread.
Transference: The
method by which the disease is transferred. Some viruses are airborne,
meaning transferred by breathing. They are the most dangerous. Some are
transferred by contact. If I touch something that a sick person has been in
contact with, I am exposed. Ebola is considered a disease that is transferred
by contact with bodily fluids, or with a surface that has had infected bodily
fluids on them.
Transference is a function of
exposure. If transference is airborne, then little exposure will lead to a
high incidence of infection. If it takes body fluid transference, then
exposure requires a much higher level of interaction, such as health care
workers have with infected patients.
Ebola requires bodily fluid
transference, which is probably the only reason it has not killed many beyond
those caring for the sick. If it mutates, or if there is a breakout, then
things will progress rapidly. It is a geometric progression.
Mortality rate: the
rate at which those who are infected die. A highly pathogenic disease is one
that has a high mortality rate. It is highly virulent and highly deadly, as
is Ebola.
Spanish flu was quite virulent.
Because of the means of transference, if you were exposed, there was a 50%
chance you would contract the disease. At the time it was considered to have
a high mortality rate because it killed 5% of those who got it. Typical flu
kills only .01%, which made Spanish Flu 500 times more deadly than a typical
flu, and Ebola kills 90% so it is many times more deadly than typical flu.
This is to set the stage for what may happen in densely populated areas.
You can see the problem when
someone is exposed, infected, becomes contagious but is not yet symptomatic.
The American killed by Ebola in Lagos, Nigeria this week was exposed on a
trip to visit his infected sister in Liberia. He boarded an airplane with a
fever. Soon he was vomiting and passing black fluid, and collapsed on the
plane. Potentially everyone on the plane could have been exposed through the
air-system, whether or not to the point of infection, it is
unknown. They all should have been quarantined.
Subsequently, the passengers
dispersed into the largest city in Africa, Lagos, pop. 21 million. The
Nigerian government is now attempting to round-up those passengers for
observation. However, fearing their government, these potential disease
vectors are hiding and possibly running to other cities. The American who
died was planning on changing planes in Lagos and continue on to the US.
So let's suppose the disease
breaks out into a pandemic. Large population centers are going to be ravaged
by the disease. The social fabric will rip apart. Chaos and fear will spread.
What can you do to protect you and your family?
In order to survive, you must
follow the example of Samoa and isolate as if you lived on an island. Social
distancing or self-imposed quarantine is the only way guaranteed to prevent
contact with the disease.
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Protocols and Gear
Here are some simple protocols
that will get you through the time needed in social isolation to survive the
disease.
Most viruses will run their
course in 90 days. During that time there will be a Phase 1 initial pass
through, then usually a Phase 2, second pass. Finally, when all that are
going to be infected are infected, and when all the infected die that are
going to die, the disease fades back into oblivion. At that point there are
few transmission vectors.
But how do you survive in
isolation for 90 days?
Terms relative to social
distancing
Isolation:
Closing oneself and family away for the duration of the illness. This means
living indoors in your house or other building, and not having any physical
contact with any other person.
Border: The
outside boundary of your isolation area. I have a chain link fence on two
sides of the property and a wall on the other two. Once I go inside my
border, it becomes sacrosanct. NO ONE is allowed to cross that border without
permission. The understanding is that the border is enforced with the threat
of deadly force.
The Outside Area: This
is the area between the outside boundary or border and the walls of the
house, typically called the yard. It becomes a "no-mans land", a
buffer zone accessed only by the "Outside Man."
The Outside Man: this
is a volunteer who resides in the Outside Area, lives in a separate shelter
from the main home, maintains the border, and handles logistics for the main
household when contact with the community is required. He remains isolated
from the people outside the boundary, and from the people inside the house.
The outside man will interact
with others, just not directly. For example, when the family inside the house
has trash, they will place it in a virtual sally port, which could be as
simple as an agreed-upon spot outside a door, and when they are back inside,
the outside man will dispose of it with no danger to either.
The Inside Area: This
is the family abode. It's typically a house, or it may be an office facility,
or a warehouse, which is lockable and somewhat defendable (to a point, as
most domiciles are not even remotely defendable.) You need containment and
isolation from the outside world.
The Family: Once
inside, they stay inside for the next 90 days. Literally inside. Not going
beyond the Inside Area for any reason. No exposure to anyone.
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Isolation Area:
A holding area for those who
may have been exposed to wait out the incubation time. They will either
contact the disease, or last though the incubation time without becoming
infected. After undergoing a meticulous scrub down and burning their clothes,
they are clear to enter the house.
Protocols: A set
of procedures that ensure that The Family is maintained in complete
isolation, and that any risks are mitigated by complete isolation.
An example of a protocol would
be adopting the procedure of washing anything entering the house be cleaned
with a bleach solution.
Another protocol is that the
Outside Man will have no direct contact with anyone from outside the border.
If a family member showed up and wanted to be admitted, they would be taken
to the tent that would be their home for the full incubation period. They
would have food (served on paper plates) brought within a safe distance, and
would dispose of their own waste, etc. The idea is that during their
isolation period, things come into their area, but do not come out at all. If
that person comes down with the disease and subsequently dies, he is
immolated in his tent using diesel fuel.
The principle is total and
complete isolation from anyone and everyone.
To be prepared to isolate, one
must be able to exist inside their home with no outside support for 90 days.
This includes food, water, fuel, sanitation, medical care, entertainment and
anything else necessary to stay alive. Cabin fever anyone?
Food: Easy
to prepare items that you might keep in your pantry. You would need a minimum
of 1500 calories per day per person. A more comfortable level will be 2,500
to 3,000 calories a day. This should include protein, such as canned tuna or
chicken, carbohydrates such as pasta and bread, and fat. MREs could help fill
the gap, but unless you store laxatives, you do not want to make these your
primary source of food. Mac-N-Cheese, stew, and soup are all good examples.
Water: This
will be the crucible for many people. You need 90 gallons per person for 90
days. You will probably have utilities for at least a few days to a few
weeks, but if the disease hits the infrastructure support, you will not be
able to count on water and electricity. Since storing that much waster is
challenging you will want to start now. Save two liter soda bottles and fill
them. I have water barrels that hold 50 gallons. A swimming pool holds
thousands. A hot water heater holds 40.
I also have a water filter
system, a Berkey countertop model. An excellent water filtration system will
allow you to store water in every available container and purify as needed,
which would be the most convenient method aside from water on tap.
Sanitation: As
long as the utilities remain on, you can use the indoor toilets. But once it
goes off, you will need some other form of waste disposal. You will need a
five-gallon bucket with a toilet seat and lots of 13-gallon white garbage
bags.
Everyone uses the bucket, and
once a day, the bag is placed outside the sally port door for the outside man
to dispose of.
Medication: If
you take a prescription that keeps you alive, you will need a 90- day plus
supply, in addition to typical over the counter meds such as ibuprofen,
Pepto, and Imodium. Explain to your doctor that you are stockpiling for an
emergency, he may agree to provide you with extra on your scrip. You may have
to pay for it, but at least you can get it.
Fuel: If
you use a wood stove to heat your home in winter, you will need lots of
firewood. If you need propane to run your stove, you will need extra propane.
If you have an electric range, you will need some alternative cooking source
like a butane burner, white gas stove, etc. Make sure you ventilate when
using a flame of any kind inside your house.
Morale:
Avoiding cabin fever when locked indoors is going to be significant
challenge. You will be cut off from all friends and family outside of your
compound. You may not have the internet, or even a cell phone after a while.
You will be isolated in terms of news. If you do not have things to do to
take your mind off the situation, it will be way more difficult. Puzzles,
board games, craft supplies, and other time consuming activities will help
pass the time.
Protection: This
is a controversial subject for many. As a pandemic spreads, there will be
those who take to the road to take away preps from those who have them.
Having appropriate weapons for home defense is crucial. The logistics and
specifics are legion, but if you have any questions there are many sources on
the web that will tell you what you need for home protection.
When to Social Distance:
If you hear about an outbreak
here in the US, consider mobilizing for social distancing. Make final
preparations, fill your bathtub, and make sure you are stocked with supplies.
If you wait for the CDC to tell you to isolate, it may be too late. Stay
tuned to reliable news sources. Once a virus reaches your community, you
should be safely ensconced.
I hope that
I am an alarmist. I hope that a pandemic does not sweep the globe, whether it
is a type of H1N1 flu virus or something else. But if it does, I hope to see
you on the other side of it.
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